***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.5 17.2 0.7 65.3 60.4 13.1 13.9 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.3 14.4 17.1 0.8 68.1 62.5 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.5 17.4 0.6 66.1 60.6 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.8 14.7 0.6 64.5 59.5 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.8 14.3 0.3 56.8 54.9 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.0 12.7 0.3 57.7 55.5 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 0.9 70.1 63.0 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.3 12.3 0.2 53.6 54.1 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.8 14.4 0.2 54.8 54.3 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 13.0 0.2 53.5 53.9 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.6 13.8 0.3 57.4 55.4 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.1 13.0 0.2 54.4 54.8 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 11.6 12.8 12.4 0.2 52.2 52.6 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.7 14.6 0.4 58.1 57.3 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.8 16.1 0.8 68.1 62.2 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.6 13.4 0.3 56.9 55.0 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.2 17.0 0.9 71.2 64.4 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 12.2 0.3 54.8 55.7 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.6 17.1 0.7 65.9 61.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.3 10.1 0.1 50.4 53.5 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.7 15.9 0.3 57.3 55.3 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.9 14.0 16.8 0.8 68.1 63.1 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.9 16.8 0.6 62.5 60.6 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.2 14.4 0.5 60.2 58.5 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.3 15.7 0.5 58.7 57.2 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.5 12.5 0.4 61.0 57.6 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.6 16.4 0.6 62.9 59.4 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.6 15.0 0.6 65.7 59.6 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.3 11.6 0.2 53.9 55.0 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.7 17.4 0.8 68.3 62.3 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------