***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 15.8 15.7 18.3 1.0 66.6 64.3 14.4 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.8 18.3 1.2 70.2 66.5 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.3 18.3 18.4 0.9 66.1 64.5 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.2 13.8 15.8 0.9 67.5 64.3 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.0 14.0 15.4 0.6 63.9 61.0 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.1 13.7 0.6 62.9 61.0 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.0 18.4 1.2 69.9 67.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.6 13.2 0.5 59.1 58.9 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.4 15.5 0.6 63.8 60.7 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.7 14.0 0.5 60.7 59.9 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.4 14.9 0.6 64.8 61.9 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.9 14.0 0.6 63.2 60.9 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.0 13.4 0.5 62.1 60.5 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.0 15.7 15.7 0.7 65.6 62.9 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.3 17.2 1.0 70.5 66.8 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.8 15.5 14.5 0.7 65.1 62.6 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.7 18.1 1.2 70.3 67.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.0 13.3 0.7 64.0 62.4 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 16.0 15.9 18.2 1.0 68.8 65.5 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.1 11.0 0.4 56.4 57.7 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.0 14.7 17.0 0.6 63.2 60.5 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 15.0 14.7 17.9 1.1 69.1 66.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.0 17.9 0.9 67.2 64.3 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.2 15.5 0.8 66.8 64.3 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.4 15.4 16.6 0.7 64.0 60.9 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 14.3 14.4 13.5 0.8 66.7 63.1 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.1 17.4 0.9 66.4 63.2 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.0 13.8 16.1 0.8 67.0 64.0 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.4 13.2 12.6 0.5 60.7 60.3 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.5 18.5 1.1 69.1 66.5 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------