***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.7 19.2 1.3 73.0 69.0 15.0 16.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 16.1 16.3 19.0 1.2 70.5 67.7 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 18.7 19.0 19.2 1.1 70.6 66.8 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.2 16.6 1.0 69.2 66.5 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.8 16.7 0.9 67.8 64.7 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.6 14.2 0.7 66.2 64.0 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.8 19.2 1.3 71.7 68.7 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 10.1 10.2 14.1 0.8 67.2 65.2 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 16.7 0.9 68.5 65.5 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.1 15.0 0.8 67.6 65.2 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.6 16.1 0.8 68.9 65.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.7 15.1 0.9 67.0 65.1 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 14.5 14.6 14.7 0.7 64.4 62.6 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 16.5 16.6 16.6 1.0 67.5 66.3 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.1 17.0 17.9 0.9 68.2 66.7 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.1 15.5 0.8 65.8 63.4 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.9 16.9 18.7 1.2 72.6 68.9 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.4 14.3 0.9 68.6 65.5 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 16.2 16.2 18.8 1.1 68.3 66.1 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.3 12.2 0.7 66.2 63.9 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.7 15.7 17.9 0.8 67.9 64.4 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.9 15.8 18.6 1.0 68.7 66.2 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 15.5 15.4 18.7 1.1 68.6 66.0 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.1 16.3 16.5 1.0 69.4 66.5 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.0 15.9 17.8 1.0 68.1 65.6 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 14.9 14.8 14.4 0.9 67.3 65.4 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 16.8 17.1 18.5 1.2 71.2 67.6 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.5 14.3 16.7 0.8 65.7 64.3 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.6 13.6 0.9 68.5 65.5 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 16.6 17.0 19.3 1.2 70.4 67.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------