***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 16.9 17.0 20.6 1.8 79.1 78.1 15.0 16.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 16.9 17.2 20.4 2.0 81.7 79.8 14.6 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 18.8 18.8 20.3 1.4 76.2 75.1 17.4 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 14.1 14.2 17.3 0.8 66.4 66.1 12.7 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.4 17.8 0.8 66.8 67.4 14.0 14.5 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 13.7 13.7 14.2 0.0 53.6 52.6 13.1 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 17.0 17.2 20.6 1.9 80.3 79.0 15.1 16.0 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 8.9 9.1 14.8 0.5 60.7 62.0 8.6 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.4 17.9 0.8 68.5 68.8 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 15.9 16.0 15.9 0.7 64.1 65.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 15.5 15.5 17.0 0.4 59.0 59.9 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 13.8 13.9 15.9 0.5 60.5 61.4 12.9 13.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.9 14.8 15.3 -0.1 48.8 49.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 17.0 17.0 17.6 1.0 72.1 70.1 15.7 16.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 16.9 16.9 18.9 0.5 64.2 63.1 16.2 16.8 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 16.4 16.3 16.1 0.1 54.6 54.3 15.4 16.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 17.3 17.4 20.4 2.2 84.0 82.4 15.3 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 14.9 14.9 15.2 0.7 66.1 65.2 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 16.9 17.0 20.2 1.7 79.5 77.6 15.3 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 10.2 10.3 13.2 0.6 64.2 64.2 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 16.5 16.2 19.0 0.8 68.5 68.4 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 16.2 16.5 20.3 1.9 82.3 80.5 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 16.6 16.8 20.0 1.6 78.1 76.4 14.3 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.7 16.9 17.5 0.8 69.1 68.0 15.8 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 17.0 16.9 19.3 1.3 74.2 73.5 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 15.0 14.8 14.3 -0.2 46.6 47.1 14.3 15.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 18.0 18.1 19.8 1.6 76.6 75.8 14.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 14.7 14.8 17.2 0.3 58.6 58.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.7 13.6 14.5 0.8 66.8 66.7 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 17.3 17.6 20.6 1.8 79.6 78.0 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------