***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.2 59.0 65.7 38.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 14.4 4.6 69.6 63.9 39.2 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 4.8 17.0 4.2 63.5 60.6 38.6 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.4 19.1 5.7 78.2 66.0 40.3 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.6 14.4 5.6 76.0 66.2 40.1 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.2 12.7 7.5 80.4 64.3 45.8 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.4 9.8 4.5 66.3 63.1 39.9 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.3 27.9 6.1 76.4 64.5 42.2 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 14.2 5.3 71.7 64.0 40.4 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.7 22.2 6.2 73.4 62.2 40.4 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.6 18.6 4.9 73.4 66.9 40.9 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.0 17.8 4.8 78.6 69.8 43.2 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.0 5.7 80.7 63.3 42.9 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.7 14.1 5.5 61.6 50.1 36.1 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.4 8.1 5.1 77.2 69.7 41.0 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.0 17.0 5.2 74.7 64.0 42.1 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.5 13.7 4.8 69.8 60.5 37.7 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.4 13.2 7.2 72.6 56.4 39.7 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.6 12.0 4.3 67.1 61.7 38.4 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.1 18.7 8.4 76.0 58.3 42.0 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.8 4.4 64.7 61.9 39.7 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 6.4 14.7 5.0 74.5 60.5 38.3 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 4.3 13.4 4.1 60.8 57.7 36.7 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.8 9.8 5.7 67.7 53.5 37.7 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.6 15.3 5.2 64.3 62.1 37.1 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.7 16.7 5.1 91.7 68.8 45.1 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.6 14.1 4.8 59.2 63.7 37.6 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.1 15.3 5.5 79.3 68.2 41.9 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.9 18.4 7.7 74.0 56.7 40.2 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.0 11.5 4.4 66.6 64.3 39.6 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------