***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 74.5 62.0 42.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.3 10.8 7.9 73.7 61.0 41.7 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.5 10.5 7.9 83.5 66.1 43.9 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 0.8 16.0 8.0 89.2 70.7 44.0 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 0.9 6.5 8.8 93.9 69.8 43.7 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.4 11.0 10.2 90.6 72.0 47.1 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.4 11.9 7.7 71.7 59.3 40.5 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.9 23.5 10.4 99.1 67.5 46.8 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 0.9 10.4 9.2 93.5 70.4 43.6 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.6 11.3 10.7 96.3 67.9 45.0 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 0.9 10.2 8.0 98.7 69.8 45.9 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.0 7.3 8.3 105.4 71.9 46.9 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.2 10.1 9.2 102.4 72.7 47.0 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 2.9 16.0 10.2 83.5 63.2 43.7 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.3 7.8 6.4 81.1 74.3 43.7 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.1 5.4 8.4 101.0 70.3 46.1 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.3 7.2 68.2 57.9 41.7 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.1 13.0 12.6 95.6 66.6 45.8 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.2 8.0 77.4 62.9 42.8 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.9 15.6 14.1 98.8 65.7 48.1 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.3 8.5 8.0 91.8 68.7 44.4 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 13.3 7.0 64.3 57.0 42.8 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 14.0 8.4 83.8 65.6 43.4 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.6 12.2 10.4 90.0 67.5 44.6 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 0.9 4.5 8.2 83.6 63.6 42.7 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.7 11.8 7.8 106.3 74.5 46.9 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 9.5 7.9 76.4 61.2 42.3 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 0.6 14.1 7.5 89.7 73.1 46.0 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 16.4 13.0 94.6 65.2 46.6 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.0 10.2 7.8 74.4 62.2 41.3 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------