***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.7 110.7 70.5 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.4 8.1 10.0 97.0 66.5 46.5 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.9 10.9 10.5 104.1 67.4 45.8 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.6 7.7 11.2 101.2 70.2 47.8 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.9 10.9 94.8 64.6 45.4 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.6 12.8 84.6 59.5 48.4 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.7 5.8 9.6 92.2 64.6 46.1 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.4 9.9 73.5 52.0 43.0 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.1 6.7 11.4 95.7 62.9 44.8 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.8 11.6 82.6 55.2 43.6 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 0.5 2.4 8.8 79.2 57.9 45.8 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 0.9 3.1 7.6 76.3 58.6 44.2 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.1 9.9 86.1 60.6 45.7 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.9 14.7 12.5 90.2 60.2 43.7 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.3 3.9 10.2 102.8 69.5 48.6 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.4 9.4 82.5 61.2 45.5 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.4 9.1 87.5 62.0 46.1 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.8 14.0 88.7 56.2 43.5 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.3 7.0 10.0 97.5 65.8 46.3 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.9 14.4 86.2 52.9 43.6 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 1.1 11.7 10.8 105.4 69.4 46.1 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.8 7.6 9.5 86.6 59.7 45.4 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.8 8.9 10.0 93.7 61.1 45.6 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.4 12.3 93.0 58.4 43.9 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 0.7 8.0 13.4 115.7 69.4 46.8 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 2.2 3.9 7.5 87.6 67.1 47.6 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.3 12.0 12.8 113.3 69.9 48.4 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.8 4.6 10.1 91.1 67.5 48.1 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.1 14.5 90.2 54.8 43.5 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.3 12.4 10.2 100.5 67.0 46.3 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------