***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.7 13.9 18.5 12.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.4 12.6 18.6 11.8 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.3 11.2 11.6 7.7 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 1.2 0.4 2.8 23.1 25.3 14.6 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 0.8 0.0 2.0 18.5 21.9 13.0 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 1.7 2.4 4.7 34.0 32.2 18.1 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.4 11.7 14.9 9.7 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 2.4 0.6 2.0 16.7 16.7 11.6 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 0.5 0.2 1.8 15.6 18.0 11.0 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 1.1 0.0 1.9 15.0 15.6 9.8 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.9 19.5 22.4 15.0 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.2 1.7 18.6 22.1 14.8 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 0.7 0.1 2.6 22.6 23.9 13.1 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.2 9.9 7.1 7.2 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 1.1 1.0 3.4 29.7 29.1 15.4 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 1.1 0.6 2.5 22.8 24.6 13.4 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.4 1.2 10.1 16.7 11.3 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 1.4 0.0 1.9 13.5 9.2 7.2 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.4 12.2 16.2 11.2 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.1 2.5 17.8 14.6 10.9 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 0.6 0.5 1.6 14.9 18.6 10.3 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 1.1 0.0 1.2 9.6 13.9 9.9 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.2 10.4 9.9 8.1 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 0.8 0.0 1.4 11.8 7.8 6.6 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 0.8 0.0 2.3 18.3 18.3 11.7 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 1.3 0.8 2.9 29.7 29.1 18.8 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.1 2.3 16.6 18.3 12.3 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.6 3.1 26.3 30.3 15.4 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 3.2 0.0 2.0 14.0 8.2 7.5 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.4 11.9 15.7 9.9 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------