***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 0.0 30.2 2.6 94.5 87.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 29.6 31.4 30.3 2.8 94.4 87.8 27.2 27.8 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 29.5 31.7 30.5 2.9 95.5 88.5 26.9 27.9 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 23.1 25.7 28.9 2.7 94.9 86.7 20.2 21.5 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 30.3 33.2 29.0 2.8 95.4 88.0 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 29.3 31.3 27.2 3.3 97.3 89.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 29.2 30.9 30.0 2.6 93.9 86.3 26.9 27.6 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 18.7 20.2 27.6 3.3 96.2 90.5 15.9 17.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 29.6 32.3 29.4 3.0 96.1 89.2 27.4 27.9 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 29.2 32.3 28.2 3.2 96.7 90.5 27.4 27.8 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 30.1 33.2 28.9 3.2 96.5 90.1 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 29.5 31.7 28.8 3.3 96.9 90.5 27.0 27.9 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 30.9 33.2 28.5 3.4 97.3 90.0 28.0 28.8 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 29.2 33.2 29.3 3.5 99.4 92.5 27.1 27.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 30.7 32.9 29.8 2.8 96.3 87.4 28.0 29.1 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 31.3 33.9 28.9 3.2 97.0 89.7 28.6 29.7 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 28.8 30.8 30.0 2.9 96.1 89.2 26.6 27.4 27.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 28.3 31.1 27.4 3.4 97.8 91.5 26.3 27.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 29.6 31.9 30.7 3.2 96.7 89.7 26.8 27.7 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 25.4 26.6 25.3 3.2 96.8 90.5 22.1 23.5 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 30.0 32.2 29.9 2.7 95.1 87.6 27.1 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 29.1 32.8 30.2 3.2 98.7 91.1 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 29.2 32.2 30.9 3.6 98.9 92.1 27.0 27.9 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 29.2 32.0 29.1 3.4 98.1 91.8 27.0 27.5 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 30.0 32.9 28.9 2.6 94.6 87.2 27.1 28.2 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 30.6 32.3 28.3 3.1 95.6 89.5 27.6 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 29.4 31.4 29.4 2.6 94.5 87.2 27.1 27.7 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 30.6 33.0 29.4 2.7 95.3 86.7 27.9 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 24.4 26.7 26.4 3.4 98.2 91.7 21.3 23.0 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 29.4 31.3 30.4 2.8 94.4 87.2 26.9 27.8 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------