***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 0.0 29.2 1.5 76.0 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 30.2 30.6 29.4 1.8 78.2 67.7 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 30.5 30.9 29.4 1.7 77.3 67.1 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.8 23.6 27.7 1.1 66.9 61.5 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 31.0 30.9 27.6 1.3 68.1 62.8 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.9 25.8 1.7 72.5 65.7 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.1 29.1 1.7 77.5 66.9 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.0 19.7 26.0 1.5 69.4 64.4 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.3 29.9 27.8 1.4 69.2 64.2 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.4 29.9 26.6 1.5 70.7 64.6 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.2 27.4 1.6 73.4 65.2 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 30.6 29.7 27.2 1.6 70.1 64.9 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.5 32.1 26.8 1.6 72.2 64.5 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 29.6 29.8 27.8 2.0 75.8 68.2 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.5 28.5 1.4 71.0 63.9 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 32.2 32.1 27.3 1.6 71.3 64.5 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 29.3 29.7 29.0 1.9 78.5 68.1 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 29.0 28.9 25.8 1.5 70.1 64.9 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.2 29.6 2.0 78.3 69.0 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 25.6 25.4 23.5 1.3 67.4 62.7 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 30.5 30.4 28.6 1.3 71.1 63.6 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 29.7 30.1 29.2 2.0 78.7 69.4 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.3 29.6 2.2 78.9 70.2 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 29.6 29.3 27.6 1.8 74.3 67.1 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 30.3 30.7 27.8 1.4 72.7 64.0 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.8 30.7 26.8 1.4 69.1 63.4 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.3 28.3 1.5 75.0 65.4 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 31.3 31.2 28.0 1.2 67.3 62.0 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.5 24.7 1.5 69.9 64.0 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 30.0 30.5 29.5 1.8 78.1 67.5 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------