***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 29.8 2.1 76.3 71.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 31.3 32.0 30.0 2.4 80.2 73.2 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 31.5 31.9 30.2 2.5 78.7 74.1 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 24.4 25.2 28.7 2.2 80.6 71.4 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 32.3 32.9 28.8 2.5 82.5 72.7 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 30.4 32.1 27.3 3.3 90.2 77.9 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.3 29.7 2.1 77.5 71.6 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 19.8 21.0 27.6 3.1 87.1 77.1 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 31.5 32.3 29.0 2.6 81.6 73.9 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 31.1 32.3 28.0 2.9 84.8 76.1 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 32.0 32.5 28.7 3.0 86.5 76.4 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 31.2 32.2 28.8 3.2 87.4 77.8 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 32.2 33.3 28.4 3.3 87.4 77.0 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 31.0 32.0 28.8 3.1 86.7 77.3 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 32.0 33.7 29.5 2.5 85.0 74.3 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 32.9 34.1 28.7 3.1 86.4 76.3 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 30.6 31.7 29.7 2.5 82.7 74.5 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 30.1 31.0 27.2 3.0 86.3 76.8 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 30.9 31.8 30.4 2.7 83.9 75.5 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 26.5 27.6 25.1 3.0 87.8 76.0 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 31.4 31.8 29.5 2.3 77.6 71.7 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 31.3 32.6 29.9 2.8 87.5 76.5 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.9 32.0 30.5 3.1 87.9 78.1 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.9 28.8 3.0 86.0 77.3 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 31.5 32.3 28.6 2.2 79.0 71.5 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.8 28.4 3.0 85.9 76.1 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.7 29.0 2.1 77.6 71.3 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 32.2 32.8 29.2 2.5 82.0 72.8 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 25.8 26.9 26.1 3.0 88.0 76.4 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 31.2 31.6 30.1 2.3 78.2 72.6 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------