***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 33.1 5.4 100.0 96.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 30.9 33.5 33.3 5.5 100.0 96.8 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 31.0 34.4 33.7 5.9 100.0 97.5 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 24.2 27.7 32.0 6.0 100.0 97.9 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 31.9 35.4 32.6 6.2 100.0 97.8 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 29.5 32.8 30.6 6.6 100.0 98.3 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 30.5 33.5 32.6 5.0 99.9 95.8 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 19.0 22.4 31.3 6.9 100.0 98.6 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 31.1 34.5 33.5 6.5 100.0 98.2 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 30.9 34.3 32.1 7.0 100.0 98.5 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 31.1 35.1 32.6 6.6 100.0 98.1 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 30.3 32.9 32.4 6.9 100.0 98.7 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 31.1 34.5 32.5 7.0 100.0 98.5 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 30.6 34.1 33.4 7.3 100.0 99.0 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 31.5 35.0 33.5 5.7 100.0 98.0 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 32.2 35.8 32.7 6.8 100.0 98.3 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 30.4 33.2 32.8 5.6 100.0 97.0 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 29.6 33.1 31.5 7.4 100.0 98.7 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 30.5 33.6 34.0 6.3 100.0 98.0 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 25.5 28.7 29.5 7.3 100.0 98.7 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 30.9 35.0 33.6 5.9 100.0 97.2 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 31.1 33.9 33.4 6.1 100.0 98.0 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 30.8 33.1 34.8 7.3 100.0 99.2 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 30.5 34.2 33.1 7.1 100.0 98.8 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 31.2 35.0 32.2 5.5 100.0 96.7 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.1 34.5 32.0 6.8 100.0 98.4 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 30.7 33.6 32.4 5.3 100.0 96.6 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 31.5 34.9 32.7 5.9 100.0 97.7 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 25.0 27.9 30.7 7.5 100.0 98.8 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 30.9 33.6 33.3 5.4 100.0 96.6 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------