***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 0.0 18.9 1.6 93.4 85.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 15.7 16.5 18.8 1.6 92.1 85.3 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 18.1 19.3 18.9 1.8 95.1 88.9 16.6 17.1 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 13.7 15.4 17.2 1.7 93.1 87.1 12.0 12.4 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 14.1 15.4 17.0 1.6 93.9 87.8 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 13.3 14.4 15.5 2.0 98.2 92.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 15.8 16.6 18.8 1.5 91.8 84.0 14.6 15.0 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 9.2 10.9 15.2 1.7 97.8 90.6 7.6 8.4 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.9 17.4 1.8 96.6 89.0 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 15.5 16.3 15.8 1.7 97.6 90.3 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 15.0 16.3 16.6 1.8 97.5 90.4 13.7 14.3 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.2 14.1 16.1 1.9 97.8 91.5 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.2 15.5 15.6 1.7 97.0 91.0 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 16.2 16.9 17.5 2.0 98.5 93.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 16.8 17.7 18.3 1.8 96.2 87.3 15.3 16.0 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.3 16.4 1.8 97.0 91.0 14.6 15.0 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 16.2 17.2 18.4 1.5 92.8 85.6 15.0 15.5 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 14.0 14.7 15.0 1.7 97.0 91.1 12.2 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.5 19.0 1.8 94.9 88.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 9.8 10.7 13.2 1.6 95.6 89.0 8.7 9.0 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 15.1 15.9 18.2 1.6 92.8 86.2 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 15.2 15.8 18.6 1.8 94.9 89.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 15.1 16.0 19.1 2.2 98.7 93.3 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 15.8 16.8 17.2 2.0 97.8 92.7 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 15.4 16.0 17.6 1.6 93.3 85.3 14.4 14.7 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 14.6 15.5 15.7 1.8 97.7 91.1 13.2 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 15.6 17.0 18.2 1.6 93.4 85.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 14.4 15.4 17.7 1.7 94.8 87.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 13.2 14.8 14.3 1.7 97.0 90.7 11.8 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.0 16.7 19.0 1.6 92.8 85.6 14.6 15.3 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------