***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 17.1 0.6 61.6 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.4 17.2 0.7 67.9 60.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.8 17.1 0.7 67.2 61.0 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.6 15.3 0.5 61.0 57.0 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.6 15.0 0.6 64.3 58.9 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.7 13.6 0.9 71.7 65.1 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.7 17.2 0.6 65.5 59.7 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.2 13.3 0.7 68.0 61.5 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.2 15.3 0.6 64.3 59.8 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 13.8 0.6 65.3 60.7 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.4 14.8 0.9 72.1 64.1 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.4 12.7 14.3 0.8 70.7 63.4 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.8 13.7 0.8 68.7 63.4 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.3 15.4 0.9 70.5 66.1 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.9 16.4 0.8 68.9 61.4 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.5 15.0 14.5 0.9 69.9 64.3 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.2 15.1 16.7 0.7 67.2 59.9 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.7 13.0 0.7 67.6 62.2 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.9 17.2 0.9 71.6 63.2 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.8 11.6 0.6 63.5 59.9 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.8 16.2 0.5 60.9 57.1 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 13.9 14.3 16.8 0.9 72.1 63.3 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.6 17.1 1.1 76.1 66.8 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.7 15.1 0.8 70.7 64.4 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.4 15.7 0.6 60.5 56.7 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.5 13.8 0.6 64.1 60.3 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.4 16.4 0.6 61.0 57.5 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.6 15.8 0.6 65.2 59.3 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.1 12.5 0.7 68.0 63.5 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.7 17.3 0.7 68.0 60.9 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------