***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 18.1 1.0 67.4 64.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 15.9 15.8 18.1 0.9 70.4 64.4 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 18.3 18.8 18.1 1.2 75.2 67.5 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.7 16.2 0.8 65.4 62.4 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 14.0 14.1 16.0 0.9 70.9 64.4 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.2 13.4 14.4 1.1 73.6 68.2 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.8 18.0 0.9 67.4 63.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.8 14.4 1.2 75.0 68.7 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.8 16.4 1.1 72.1 66.4 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.4 14.9 1.1 73.6 67.7 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.8 15.3 15.8 1.2 75.6 69.1 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.4 15.3 1.2 76.6 70.0 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.4 14.6 1.1 73.8 66.9 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.1 17.0 16.5 1.3 81.5 69.8 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 16.3 16.4 17.2 1.0 71.3 66.1 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 15.7 16.0 15.4 1.2 75.1 67.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.4 17.5 0.8 66.8 62.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.8 13.6 14.2 1.2 73.5 68.5 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.3 18.2 1.1 74.9 67.2 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.4 12.5 1.0 69.3 65.5 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.0 17.3 1.0 68.6 64.5 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.0 17.7 1.0 70.2 65.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.5 16.1 18.2 1.4 82.1 71.0 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.6 16.3 16.2 1.3 78.7 69.9 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.7 16.6 0.9 69.6 63.5 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.5 14.7 1.0 71.2 65.2 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.2 16.3 17.3 0.9 69.7 63.9 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.5 13.8 16.6 0.9 68.4 64.1 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.6 14.0 13.6 1.1 74.9 68.3 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.6 18.3 1.0 72.2 65.3 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------