***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 19.3 1.7 85.6 75.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.3 16.9 19.3 1.7 82.8 73.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 19.1 20.1 19.4 2.0 87.7 78.8 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 15.2 16.5 17.6 1.7 88.5 78.2 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.9 17.5 1.9 90.5 79.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 13.9 14.5 16.0 2.1 93.1 83.2 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.6 17.1 19.2 1.5 80.8 72.2 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 10.3 11.7 15.7 1.9 92.2 80.8 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.2 17.9 2.1 92.0 81.3 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.8 16.3 1.9 92.8 81.4 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 15.5 16.4 17.2 2.1 94.2 82.8 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.8 14.3 16.8 2.1 94.7 83.4 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 14.8 15.6 16.3 2.1 92.0 83.7 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 16.9 17.9 18.0 2.2 95.8 83.9 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.3 18.1 18.7 2.2 91.9 82.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 16.5 17.8 17.0 2.2 93.2 83.6 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.0 17.6 18.7 1.5 81.4 72.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.4 15.4 15.6 2.0 94.5 82.1 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 16.4 17.1 19.5 2.0 87.5 77.6 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 10.3 10.8 13.8 1.7 88.0 77.4 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.5 18.7 1.9 88.6 77.9 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.4 19.0 1.8 85.9 76.7 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.9 19.6 2.4 95.2 83.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 16.3 18.1 17.7 2.2 96.8 83.5 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 16.2 17.0 18.0 1.8 88.4 77.7 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.7 16.4 2.1 94.4 82.4 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 17.1 17.9 18.6 1.8 86.1 76.5 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.8 18.1 1.9 90.0 80.6 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 14.4 15.5 14.8 1.9 93.3 81.1 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.9 17.3 19.4 1.7 83.3 74.4 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------