***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 49.2 43.4 36.6 87.3 49.6 47.6 37.2 43.5 58.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 46.4 42.0 36.3 90.2 54.2 49.3 22.8 38.4 67.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 51.6 45.5 34.5 81.5 49.7 45.2 32.0 45.5 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 37.0 40.2 27.0 67.1 40.1 38.8 37.7 48.3 57.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 41.1 35.4 29.5 76.1 46.4 43.8 29.3 38.0 44.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 29.9 38.7 31.1 69.6 43.6 38.5 32.5 40.3 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.6 40.1 37.4 94.8 54.9 50.2 23.5 37.0 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 42.4 48.3 30.0 63.7 38.0 34.3 41.7 63.0 85.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 49.9 38.0 31.4 75.6 45.0 42.7 31.2 43.3 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 41.1 49.2 35.0 71.0 41.7 38.5 45.6 53.2 58.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 48.2 39.2 27.5 72.5 44.5 42.2 32.0 46.1 50.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 26.4 31.9 22.7 61.3 39.1 36.0 31.3 36.4 42.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 20.5 28.1 24.5 65.0 41.7 38.4 21.1 34.3 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 64.5 56.9 43.0 78.5 46.4 42.4 38.7 59.7 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 17.6 32.3 23.3 67.9 45.1 41.0 18.1 33.3 42.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.6 37.5 24.6 66.1 42.2 39.0 28.2 40.3 47.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 46.7 51.3 40.5 101.5 60.5 53.0 30.7 43.4 55.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 33.8 42.6 41.5 74.1 40.7 38.5 41.3 46.0 53.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 49.3 42.7 35.1 84.8 52.1 47.5 33.5 42.5 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 36.8 38.7 40.0 70.6 36.7 34.4 34.9 58.6 68.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 51.3 42.2 32.5 80.6 47.6 44.8 27.0 45.3 59.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 52.3 51.3 41.1 95.2 57.4 52.0 34.4 47.5 56.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 50.2 42.8 34.2 79.3 48.4 45.0 27.8 44.3 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 63.7 47.9 38.6 76.7 45.8 41.2 40.5 54.5 72.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.7 33.3 36.4 84.6 47.1 46.1 23.6 34.6 45.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.2 27.7 19.0 57.1 38.2 34.7 24.9 33.3 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 48.8 39.9 39.9 89.8 49.8 48.1 23.9 40.0 64.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 19.8 24.5 24.2 63.5 40.3 38.4 20.9 29.0 37.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 47.2 51.9 43.4 74.7 39.0 37.5 48.2 61.8 87.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 37.0 32.1 36.3 88.8 53.0 48.7 23.6 30.3 39.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------