***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.8 7.5 82.7 64.1 52.0 6.8 8.5 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 16.7 7.8 95.9 68.1 53.5 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.6 18.8 6.8 79.3 63.9 51.5 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.0 20.0 6.1 77.1 65.5 47.1 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.5 22.3 6.4 84.5 67.4 51.2 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.2 18.2 7.7 82.7 68.4 47.4 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.1 12.9 8.6 111.5 71.6 55.1 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 25.3 21.5 6.0 61.1 58.0 44.1 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.5 15.0 7.0 83.9 66.2 50.3 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.4 7.4 73.4 60.8 47.0 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 17.5 5.6 75.9 66.8 49.2 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 15.0 4.3 56.9 61.2 45.1 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.5 26.3 5.4 67.4 68.2 47.9 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.7 14.9 8.0 71.1 59.2 48.6 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.9 6.9 5.3 75.8 69.7 50.8 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.0 24.8 5.5 74.6 69.0 50.0 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.6 22.1 9.8 127.6 75.0 54.5 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 9.0 76.9 58.5 46.7 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.9 7.0 82.6 65.1 52.0 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.0 9.3 77.8 57.2 46.7 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 19.0 6.9 87.9 66.3 51.6 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.9 19.0 10.0 120.1 72.4 53.6 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.1 6.0 68.3 60.8 49.3 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.2 19.0 7.6 73.8 59.4 48.1 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.2 17.4 7.7 84.5 65.2 50.8 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.6 14.8 4.0 57.8 63.3 47.7 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.0 8.3 89.7 64.9 52.2 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 15.6 5.6 72.1 68.4 49.5 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.3 22.9 9.6 79.0 57.6 47.3 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 7.9 92.5 67.0 53.2 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------