***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.0 4.7 8.4 89.8 61.2 48.2 0.1 2.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.1 7.6 82.0 60.7 49.4 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.6 7.8 76.4 56.9 46.8 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 12.8 7.2 81.4 62.1 47.2 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 0.6 5.4 7.7 89.9 64.7 49.2 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.0 10.5 11.2 117.8 72.4 49.2 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.3 8.1 92.0 63.0 51.1 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.9 16.9 7.9 80.2 60.3 45.2 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.1 7.4 8.5 88.9 61.9 44.1 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 1.7 7.9 8.9 81.8 59.2 45.5 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.1 6.5 7.3 91.2 67.5 50.7 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 0.8 6.9 6.7 84.0 63.9 44.9 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.9 7.4 8.3 100.0 68.7 47.2 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.8 8.0 9.5 71.5 51.8 42.8 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.4 8.4 7.9 112.7 72.1 51.8 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.6 6.4 7.6 92.7 68.3 45.5 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.0 8.9 92.7 61.8 49.7 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.3 10.6 76.2 55.3 43.5 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.5 7.3 76.7 59.2 48.1 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.8 10.7 77.6 54.9 42.1 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.5 7.4 8.2 85.3 59.7 45.8 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.7 12.5 9.2 85.3 61.0 50.7 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.8 7.1 70.4 55.2 44.9 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.7 6.7 9.0 69.2 53.1 42.3 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.2 6.2 9.8 103.4 64.7 51.1 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.3 7.1 6.4 91.1 68.1 46.6 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 9.7 10.0 99.8 64.5 50.0 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 0.5 8.1 7.7 92.9 66.1 48.3 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 10.7 11.2 76.9 55.0 43.5 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.6 7.4 78.5 60.9 48.7 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------