***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 5.0 10.5 12.9 114.8 69.1 58.7 0.3 2.8 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 14.5 13.9 135.4 74.4 61.3 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.3 11.1 13.8 124.3 72.5 59.1 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.6 4.6 9.8 89.2 63.6 49.9 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 1.7 3.1 10.9 102.9 67.7 56.1 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.4 1.7 9.1 71.6 56.3 46.3 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.5 8.4 13.0 126.7 71.4 58.9 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.9 12.6 11.0 89.0 63.5 43.6 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.3 5.8 10.2 87.3 60.9 47.0 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 14.6 12.3 95.2 64.8 47.9 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 3.3 5.2 10.4 96.2 67.1 53.5 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.6 8.2 80.6 62.3 45.3 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 2.0 1.8 7.6 73.5 59.7 46.9 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.3 18.8 16.8 123.3 73.4 57.0 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.0 4.2 8.4 86.9 66.7 56.2 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.9 7.9 75.2 59.1 47.3 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.4 9.3 12.7 118.2 71.6 56.8 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.0 11.6 14.6 103.0 66.0 49.0 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 8.4 10.8 14.5 136.7 76.0 62.3 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 8.4 14.1 100.9 62.6 45.9 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.1 11.1 11.6 102.7 67.6 53.0 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 8.4 13.3 114.3 72.6 58.6 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 9.3 13.1 15.1 135.7 77.3 61.9 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 15.4 15.4 120.7 72.3 54.6 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.4 8.5 12.6 106.3 67.2 54.3 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.2 7.3 74.4 62.0 46.8 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.9 13.9 112.8 68.5 56.5 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.3 4.4 7.8 75.3 61.7 49.8 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.8 16.1 105.2 66.3 50.7 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.9 13.9 14.1 134.8 74.2 60.6 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------