***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.3 10.9 7.7 63.4 52.7 45.3 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.8 7.0 55.8 52.7 44.3 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.8 9.5 6.1 49.0 51.2 41.6 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.7 8.8 3.8 30.8 41.5 34.3 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.8 4.4 37.2 48.3 39.3 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 2.7 2.9 3.0 23.0 33.4 27.9 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.2 5.3 7.7 61.0 54.2 45.5 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.9 10.7 5.2 33.6 38.8 34.1 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.2 10.7 5.7 48.0 52.5 43.6 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 10.7 6.4 42.0 45.1 39.1 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.8 12.0 4.3 35.1 48.1 38.4 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.5 30.8 41.9 34.8 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 1.6 5.3 3.2 28.9 47.0 33.3 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.6 11.4 8.6 52.0 48.6 39.7 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.6 7.5 1.8 16.7 39.5 29.9 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.9 7.2 3.6 32.4 47.0 34.7 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.4 8.7 9.2 77.1 58.2 49.1 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 7.6 7.3 45.5 40.6 37.2 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 7.0 6.4 49.7 49.3 42.2 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 3.6 4.5 5.9 33.5 31.9 27.8 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.3 5.7 50.1 51.6 42.9 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.6 8.7 70.6 55.4 48.1 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.2 3.6 6.0 45.6 45.8 39.1 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.4 12.6 6.7 46.4 45.2 38.7 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.6 6.4 50.8 51.8 43.1 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.5 5.0 1.2 13.2 31.0 21.9 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.1 8.9 7.7 60.5 52.4 44.9 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.8 3.1 25.6 41.5 33.0 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 8.3 9.8 6.5 40.2 35.9 32.5 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.7 6.9 55.5 52.5 44.5 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------