***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.5 28.6 0.1 53.3 52.7 27.8 28.4 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.1 28.5 0.0 51.2 49.4 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 28.3 28.6 29.1 0.3 56.7 54.9 27.1 28.1 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 22.7 22.8 27.2 1.1 69.1 65.8 20.3 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.6 27.5 0.5 59.6 58.4 28.0 28.9 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.2 25.7 1.0 67.7 65.6 26.9 27.9 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.9 28.2 -0.2 47.7 47.0 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 17.5 18.0 26.1 0.7 62.0 61.0 16.0 17.3 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 28.3 29.0 28.1 0.7 62.3 61.2 27.5 28.0 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 28.2 29.2 26.8 1.0 65.9 63.8 27.4 28.0 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.0 27.7 0.4 56.7 55.9 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 28.4 28.5 27.4 0.6 57.9 58.1 27.0 28.2 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 29.4 29.3 27.1 0.3 55.3 54.7 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.4 27.1 0.3 58.7 55.1 27.1 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 30.1 30.1 29.1 0.9 66.5 63.6 28.2 29.2 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 30.1 29.9 27.5 0.5 58.8 57.7 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.5 28.0 0.0 51.6 49.9 27.0 27.5 28.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 28.0 28.0 25.8 0.8 67.0 63.4 26.3 27.2 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.9 28.7 0.1 52.1 50.9 27.0 27.9 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 24.8 24.7 23.7 0.8 65.9 62.7 22.2 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.8 28.5 0.4 59.1 57.0 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.3 28.2 0.2 54.7 52.7 27.4 28.1 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.1 27.9 28.8 0.0 51.4 51.1 27.1 27.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 28.1 28.2 27.4 0.6 63.2 59.3 26.9 27.9 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.9 27.3 0.3 59.8 55.8 27.2 28.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 29.2 29.7 27.5 0.9 61.8 62.3 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.3 27.8 0.2 56.7 53.5 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.7 28.1 1.2 69.3 66.3 27.9 29.1 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 23.9 23.7 24.9 0.8 66.3 62.5 21.3 23.2 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.4 28.1 28.5 -0.1 50.1 49.2 27.0 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------