***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.1 26.9 27.8 0.2 52.3 51.9 25.4 26.8 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.0 26.9 27.8 0.2 52.4 51.9 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 26.6 26.4 28.3 0.4 53.6 53.5 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 19.9 20.5 26.7 1.1 60.0 60.1 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 27.7 28.0 26.7 0.5 55.9 55.1 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.1 27.6 24.6 0.9 58.9 59.3 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 26.8 26.6 27.5 0.0 50.6 50.1 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.2 25.3 0.6 56.2 55.8 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 27.1 27.0 26.9 0.6 56.8 56.1 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 27.1 27.3 25.8 0.8 57.9 56.9 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.4 26.6 0.4 54.0 54.3 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 27.0 27.0 26.7 0.5 55.1 55.1 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.2 25.8 0.5 54.4 55.4 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 26.9 26.9 25.9 0.1 53.1 51.6 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 28.5 28.2 27.9 1.1 62.2 61.6 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.8 26.5 0.7 57.0 56.9 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.1 25.8 27.4 0.2 52.9 52.1 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 26.1 26.2 25.0 0.6 55.8 56.0 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 26.9 26.8 28.1 0.3 52.5 52.5 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.4 22.6 0.6 54.4 55.6 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 27.1 27.1 27.5 0.4 54.2 53.7 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.5 27.5 0.3 54.0 52.8 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 27.0 26.8 28.0 0.2 50.4 51.9 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 26.5 26.5 26.3 0.4 55.2 54.3 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 26.9 27.0 26.3 0.4 56.7 54.1 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.2 26.8 0.9 59.6 58.9 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 26.9 26.8 26.9 0.2 53.7 52.6 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 27.8 28.1 27.2 1.2 61.2 61.6 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 21.7 21.5 23.9 0.5 53.7 54.7 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.4 27.8 0.1 51.7 51.4 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------