***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 27.6 28.5 28.0 -0.3 46.6 46.4 28.2 28.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.1 28.4 27.9 -0.4 46.1 45.8 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.3 29.0 28.5 -0.1 48.6 48.7 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.7 23.0 27.1 0.6 57.8 55.3 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.1 27.1 0.2 52.0 51.1 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.3 25.2 0.6 58.3 54.9 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.8 27.7 -0.5 44.6 44.4 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.1 25.9 0.4 55.7 53.2 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.5 27.3 0.3 55.1 52.8 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.5 26.4 0.6 58.7 55.0 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.6 27.1 0.1 50.8 50.4 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.8 27.2 0.2 51.7 51.0 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.4 26.2 0.1 51.8 50.1 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.1 26.2 -0.2 48.4 48.4 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.7 28.3 0.7 59.5 56.1 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 31.0 30.8 26.9 0.3 52.5 51.9 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.7 27.7 27.6 -0.2 47.5 46.9 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.1 25.5 0.5 59.5 54.8 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.6 28.0 28.1 -0.3 46.5 46.5 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.7 23.3 0.5 58.0 54.6 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.2 27.8 0.0 50.1 49.8 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.6 27.6 -0.1 49.9 48.5 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.9 28.1 -0.4 46.0 46.6 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.5 26.6 0.2 52.5 51.4 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.2 26.6 0.0 50.9 49.4 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 30.3 30.1 27.4 0.6 57.1 54.7 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.1 28.5 27.2 -0.2 47.9 47.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.7 27.7 0.7 58.7 56.5 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.8 24.5 0.4 58.4 53.8 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.7 28.4 27.9 -0.4 46.5 45.2 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------