***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.9 29.0 0.3 55.0 53.7 28.6 29.7 31.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.5 28.7 -0.1 49.2 49.3 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.2 29.4 0.4 57.4 54.3 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 24.2 24.1 27.8 1.6 71.1 66.7 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.9 31.0 28.2 0.9 63.3 59.5 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.4 26.8 1.8 72.4 68.2 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.9 28.4 -0.2 46.3 47.9 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.1 26.8 1.2 68.1 62.6 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.9 28.8 1.0 64.4 60.5 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.4 27.4 1.3 68.1 63.3 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.7 30.8 28.4 0.7 61.4 57.9 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.9 28.2 1.1 65.4 61.1 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 31.0 31.3 28.1 0.8 61.6 58.4 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.3 30.3 27.4 0.3 58.5 53.0 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 31.4 31.2 30.2 1.5 70.7 65.9 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.9 32.0 28.3 1.0 65.0 60.0 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.0 28.2 -0.1 50.2 49.2 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.2 26.3 1.1 66.7 61.1 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.3 28.9 0.1 51.7 50.5 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.8 24.5 1.3 69.2 62.9 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.5 29.1 0.6 61.9 56.8 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.7 28.2 0.0 52.5 50.1 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.8 29.0 0.1 53.4 51.3 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.9 27.9 0.7 61.2 56.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.1 28.0 0.6 60.2 56.6 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 31.4 31.3 28.5 1.6 69.7 64.9 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.8 28.3 0.4 56.7 54.4 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 31.4 31.9 29.0 1.7 73.0 67.5 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.3 25.0 25.5 1.1 67.3 60.8 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.4 28.8 -0.1 48.2 49.4 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------