***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 29.3 29.4 29.5 0.3 57.1 55.2 27.9 29.2 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 29.4 29.6 29.5 0.1 54.7 53.0 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 29.2 29.3 30.0 0.5 59.1 57.9 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 23.0 23.0 27.2 1.0 67.3 64.6 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 29.5 29.7 28.2 0.5 60.8 58.5 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 28.6 29.4 26.1 0.9 65.6 63.0 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 29.1 29.1 29.2 -0.1 52.1 49.9 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 17.4 18.0 26.3 0.7 64.4 61.4 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 29.0 29.7 29.4 0.9 65.5 62.7 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 29.9 29.5 27.5 1.2 67.5 65.1 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 28.8 28.9 28.6 0.2 57.6 56.0 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 28.0 28.4 27.6 0.4 60.1 58.0 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 29.1 29.2 28.1 0.0 52.5 51.3 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 28.8 29.1 28.8 0.9 62.4 62.1 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 30.5 30.5 30.0 0.5 60.6 58.1 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 30.0 30.0 28.1 0.2 56.0 54.6 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 28.7 28.9 29.0 0.1 53.5 52.5 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 28.0 28.5 26.4 1.1 66.5 64.5 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 29.0 29.0 29.7 0.2 56.0 54.8 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 23.7 24.4 24.2 0.8 63.2 61.3 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 29.4 29.8 29.7 0.6 61.4 59.3 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 28.9 29.6 29.3 0.5 57.8 56.9 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 28.7 28.8 29.8 0.2 56.7 55.2 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 28.8 28.6 28.8 1.0 65.0 63.4 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 29.2 29.8 28.3 0.2 57.1 54.5 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 29.0 30.2 27.4 0.5 60.4 58.9 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 28.7 29.5 28.8 0.2 56.7 54.0 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 30.4 30.8 28.6 1.0 66.7 64.0 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 23.0 23.7 25.7 1.1 65.7 64.2 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 29.1 29.4 29.5 0.0 54.5 53.0 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------