***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.2 17.7 -0.2 45.7 46.0 14.8 15.2 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.6 17.4 -0.2 42.4 44.4 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 18.0 -0.1 49.5 47.5 16.6 17.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.1 15.6 0.2 58.1 55.4 12.1 12.8 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.7 15.7 0.0 50.5 49.2 13.2 13.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.0 13.8 0.2 60.0 56.6 12.6 12.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.6 14.9 17.4 -0.3 41.8 43.0 14.8 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.5 13.5 -0.1 50.1 48.3 7.5 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.8 15.8 -0.1 50.4 48.5 14.5 14.8 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.6 14.2 0.0 50.9 49.5 14.5 14.6 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.1 15.2 -0.3 43.6 42.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.8 12.6 14.4 -0.2 48.7 47.0 12.0 12.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.6 13.8 -0.3 44.7 43.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.2 15.5 -0.1 46.8 46.6 15.0 15.3 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.0 17.3 0.1 53.5 52.9 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.0 14.7 -0.1 48.9 47.5 14.8 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.1 15.4 17.2 -0.1 45.2 45.8 15.1 15.5 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.1 13.4 0.0 52.4 51.0 12.4 13.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.6 14.7 17.5 -0.2 43.4 44.6 14.6 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.2 11.4 0.1 52.2 52.3 9.0 9.1 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.5 17.0 -0.1 48.7 47.2 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 14.0 14.2 17.2 -0.1 45.4 46.3 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.5 17.5 -0.2 44.7 43.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.1 15.5 0.0 50.2 48.7 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 16.6 -0.1 47.7 47.0 14.4 15.0 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 13.7 0.2 59.7 55.9 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.2 17.1 -0.1 48.8 48.0 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.8 16.1 0.2 57.9 56.2 13.2 13.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.3 12.8 0.0 50.4 49.6 12.0 12.3 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.0 17.7 -0.3 42.7 43.9 14.8 15.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------