***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 12.9 14.0 16.8 -0.1 50.3 48.5 12.8 14.0 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.7 16.5 -0.1 50.1 49.0 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.0 17.2 0.1 52.1 51.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.4 14.8 0.4 57.9 55.7 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.7 14.6 0.1 53.1 52.5 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.0 13.1 0.4 57.7 57.0 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.7 16.6 -0.2 49.0 47.8 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.2 12.8 0.3 54.4 54.6 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 14.7 0.2 55.1 53.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.0 13.4 0.3 55.4 55.1 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.4 14.3 0.1 51.7 53.0 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.0 13.5 0.2 54.1 53.9 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.2 12.6 0.1 52.7 53.3 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.2 14.5 0.0 49.6 51.0 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.8 16.2 0.4 58.9 56.2 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.5 13.6 0.2 55.4 54.7 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.4 16.2 -0.1 51.0 49.5 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.5 12.4 0.3 55.9 55.6 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.7 16.7 0.0 49.9 49.4 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.7 10.4 0.3 55.3 55.6 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.5 16.0 0.1 53.4 51.0 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.2 16.2 0.0 51.3 49.6 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.5 16.6 -0.1 49.2 49.1 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.2 14.4 0.2 53.3 53.2 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.6 14.0 15.4 0.0 52.2 49.5 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 12.7 0.3 54.3 56.0 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.7 16.0 -0.1 51.2 49.1 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.5 15.2 0.5 59.6 57.3 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.6 12.0 0.3 54.9 55.4 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.8 16.8 -0.1 49.8 48.7 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------