***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.8 18.4 0.3 55.0 53.6 14.8 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.5 18.0 0.2 53.5 52.4 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.0 18.7 0.4 55.8 54.6 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.4 16.4 0.7 61.1 59.5 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.5 16.5 0.4 57.2 55.2 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.8 13.9 14.5 0.8 66.4 62.8 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.8 18.0 0.1 52.6 51.0 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.3 14.2 0.5 59.4 56.5 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.7 16.7 0.5 57.5 56.5 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.1 15.0 0.5 59.7 57.2 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.0 16.0 0.1 51.9 51.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 0.4 57.7 55.9 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.3 14.6 0.1 52.6 52.4 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.3 16.3 0.5 59.9 57.3 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.6 18.3 0.7 61.7 59.6 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.9 15.5 0.3 54.2 54.0 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.4 17.7 0.2 54.6 53.3 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.3 14.2 0.5 59.2 57.8 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.7 18.1 0.2 54.0 53.0 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.1 12.3 0.6 63.1 59.3 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.4 17.7 0.3 55.4 54.1 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.1 14.9 17.8 0.2 54.7 53.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 18.2 0.2 55.0 53.4 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.9 16.3 0.5 58.3 56.7 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.9 17.4 0.3 55.7 53.9 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.8 15.0 14.6 0.7 62.6 61.1 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.0 17.9 0.3 55.8 54.2 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.4 16.9 0.8 63.4 60.8 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.6 13.5 0.5 59.1 57.6 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.0 18.3 0.1 52.5 51.7 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------