***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 16.4 15.7 18.5 -0.6 40.6 40.9 15.5 16.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.9 18.3 -0.6 41.6 40.7 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.4 18.1 18.7 -0.5 42.1 42.8 17.5 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 13.4 13.2 16.2 -0.2 47.6 47.0 13.0 13.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 15.2 14.8 16.8 -0.4 44.0 43.0 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.6 13.9 -0.3 45.9 45.5 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.4 15.9 18.3 -0.6 41.3 40.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.3 8.5 13.7 -0.8 32.9 34.1 8.5 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.4 16.6 -0.8 35.3 34.7 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.6 14.7 -0.8 33.7 34.2 15.6 15.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 14.3 14.5 16.0 -1.2 25.8 28.0 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.2 14.9 -0.9 33.1 34.3 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.7 13.5 14.8 -1.0 25.6 27.3 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.3 16.5 -0.4 35.9 39.2 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.5 17.9 -0.8 36.7 37.2 16.2 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 15.6 16.0 15.7 -0.7 35.8 35.8 15.8 16.6 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.6 18.1 -0.4 43.5 43.4 15.9 16.9 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.1 14.2 -0.5 40.0 39.8 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.4 15.9 18.4 -0.6 40.7 40.7 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.4 9.9 12.5 -0.3 44.2 43.6 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.1 17.8 -0.7 38.4 38.5 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.6 18.4 -0.3 43.4 43.7 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.0 18.3 -0.6 39.3 39.4 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.3 16.5 -0.5 39.7 40.7 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 16.2 15.4 17.5 -0.7 38.7 39.6 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.1 14.4 -0.3 49.6 47.3 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 16.0 15.1 18.1 -0.5 42.2 43.2 14.9 15.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.4 16.6 -0.4 45.5 45.0 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.5 13.3 -0.6 34.7 35.6 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.4 15.9 18.5 -0.6 40.9 40.3 15.4 16.1 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------