***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.6 57.9 33.0 29.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 24.0 23.5 20.3 64.2 35.0 32.2 22.8 38.4 67.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 27.0 33.1 19.4 60.0 33.7 29.2 32.0 45.5 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 33.4 38.4 18.6 56.1 36.2 28.4 37.7 48.3 57.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 20.6 31.5 18.9 55.4 36.1 27.9 29.3 38.0 44.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 27.9 39.1 26.2 68.9 45.3 35.1 32.5 40.3 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 19.2 21.9 20.1 61.7 31.6 30.8 23.5 37.0 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 39.4 44.3 22.4 59.3 35.4 30.7 41.7 63.0 85.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 28.0 31.5 20.5 58.1 35.2 28.3 31.2 43.3 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 37.1 45.7 24.1 59.6 33.7 29.4 45.6 53.2 58.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 28.0 31.9 16.2 52.2 32.2 28.0 32.0 46.1 50.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 24.8 31.4 16.3 54.6 37.5 30.3 31.3 36.4 42.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 20.3 28.0 19.4 59.3 41.5 32.3 21.1 34.3 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 37.3 41.1 27.3 65.6 35.1 32.9 38.7 59.7 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 16.6 31.2 17.0 61.4 43.1 31.7 18.1 33.3 42.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 25.8 33.5 17.0 54.6 37.2 29.9 28.2 40.3 47.5 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 27.1 32.9 21.2 66.0 37.7 32.6 30.7 43.4 55.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 30.9 41.6 30.1 63.5 35.7 30.5 41.3 46.0 53.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 24.3 35.6 20.5 65.2 36.7 32.5 33.5 42.5 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 34.7 36.3 32.1 64.7 34.9 32.3 34.9 58.6 68.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 25.0 25.4 18.1 56.2 31.1 27.6 27.0 45.3 59.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 31.4 35.4 20.8 64.1 37.2 31.6 34.4 47.5 56.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 27.7 30.0 21.8 66.2 36.0 32.8 27.8 44.3 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 35.8 41.7 26.1 63.7 35.4 30.9 40.5 54.5 72.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 23.9 23.5 20.8 56.4 32.3 28.0 23.6 34.6 45.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 21.5 29.4 16.7 60.0 43.5 33.3 24.9 33.3 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 24.6 23.9 21.5 58.5 32.3 29.6 23.9 40.0 64.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 18.0 24.5 17.8 58.9 40.3 30.2 20.9 29.0 37.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 44.4 50.2 31.6 64.8 35.2 31.3 48.2 61.8 87.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 21.8 23.6 19.8 62.2 34.3 31.1 23.6 30.3 39.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------