***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 68.0 62.4 46.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.7 4.5 60.2 58.5 44.7 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.1 17.6 5.4 74.7 59.8 46.3 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.0 20.1 5.6 83.8 66.2 50.9 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.1 17.1 6.0 80.5 63.6 50.0 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.2 20.5 9.3 115.5 72.2 51.4 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.2 4.4 60.2 58.8 44.5 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 25.3 29.0 7.6 89.6 65.2 49.3 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.2 13.2 7.0 87.3 63.1 49.3 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.6 17.1 8.1 88.9 62.2 48.4 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.7 16.7 5.2 74.5 64.4 49.1 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 17.9 5.3 80.2 66.8 49.4 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 23.7 6.3 88.1 67.7 48.9 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.2 14.8 7.8 81.8 58.7 46.5 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.0 8.6 5.8 120.4 78.3 53.8 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.6 24.5 5.3 78.6 67.6 49.7 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.1 4.2 58.3 56.8 45.3 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.6 13.9 9.9 88.8 62.0 47.2 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.0 4.9 65.3 59.1 44.5 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.9 18.9 10.4 87.1 62.5 48.0 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.8 17.8 5.6 78.5 61.9 47.6 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.8 4.3 59.3 57.3 44.8 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.6 5.6 74.6 58.6 46.1 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.6 19.7 8.3 86.3 60.7 47.4 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.1 5.5 72.7 62.6 48.0 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.6 22.1 5.7 95.3 72.4 54.2 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.7 14.7 5.4 72.2 63.7 47.4 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 17.3 5.7 96.6 71.6 52.6 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 23.9 10.2 86.8 61.9 47.0 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.9 4.7 64.2 60.4 44.1 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------