***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 4.0 69.6 63.6 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.4 5.4 83.3 67.2 47.6 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.9 4.3 71.0 60.8 43.0 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 1.9 10.9 3.9 66.2 59.0 38.2 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 0.5 3.3 3.9 63.6 59.1 37.8 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.0 8.4 5.9 68.2 64.3 44.4 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.5 11.8 5.5 83.6 66.9 48.1 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 3.9 18.0 5.3 72.8 64.1 42.0 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.1 7.0 3.9 60.8 59.9 39.1 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 8.8 5.3 70.6 61.4 41.8 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 0.9 5.5 3.5 60.5 62.2 38.9 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 0.6 7.5 3.7 63.0 65.7 39.5 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.9 6.8 4.6 68.3 66.8 43.4 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.8 6.1 72.8 57.6 42.0 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.4 5.5 3.2 62.2 63.4 39.6 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.5 4.5 3.9 61.8 65.3 42.0 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.7 5.9 87.5 65.7 49.5 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.0 6.7 73.0 57.7 41.2 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 11.0 5.1 81.1 65.4 47.2 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 12.1 7.7 79.0 61.5 42.9 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.6 6.9 3.4 59.7 57.7 39.1 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 13.2 5.5 80.5 62.1 47.7 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.7 11.8 4.9 76.5 63.4 46.0 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.4 5.7 71.3 57.4 40.9 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.2 4.3 4.2 67.9 58.1 39.9 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.1 7.0 3.7 63.8 68.0 42.8 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.0 4.6 70.7 60.4 44.1 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 0.5 7.7 3.7 63.9 63.7 41.0 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.9 14.4 7.1 74.3 57.3 40.6 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.6 5.0 79.6 64.7 46.1 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------