***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 113.1 68.1 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.9 8.6 8.2 121.0 68.9 50.8 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.5 9.9 7.8 112.0 66.1 48.5 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 0.5 6.3 7.4 95.9 67.6 45.4 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 0.4 2.4 7.2 88.8 64.0 43.4 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 0.6 3.4 8.6 94.2 62.0 44.4 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.9 6.1 8.2 110.8 64.4 49.7 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.6 6.9 78.6 55.4 42.3 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.3 6.0 7.7 92.8 61.7 43.5 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 11.7 8.2 87.9 56.6 42.7 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 0.8 3.9 5.7 79.0 57.7 43.0 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.3 2.1 5.0 74.4 58.3 43.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.4 2.0 6.3 84.3 60.4 43.8 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.9 12.9 10.5 115.4 66.1 47.3 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 3.3 5.4 6.6 107.4 69.9 47.5 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 0.2 1.0 5.9 84.0 61.6 43.4 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.9 6.6 8.7 126.0 67.6 50.6 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.7 8.8 10.6 97.9 58.9 42.9 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.2 8.3 129.3 69.9 51.5 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 1.7 5.4 10.5 88.5 56.8 41.8 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 1.7 10.7 7.5 103.3 65.7 46.0 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.7 8.0 8.5 128.3 69.6 48.9 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.6 8.9 9.0 134.8 69.3 50.7 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 11.3 9.8 107.1 62.4 45.4 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.4 8.1 9.5 107.1 64.8 49.5 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.3 5.0 80.7 62.7 43.9 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.2 9.6 110.9 65.4 48.2 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.1 4.6 6.8 100.8 67.7 45.5 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 2.4 8.0 11.0 98.3 59.8 42.6 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 12.4 8.0 116.9 68.7 50.5 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------