***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.8 14.9 21.4 14.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 1.0 1.9 2.3 20.9 27.3 17.7 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.4 1.8 15.4 19.1 13.9 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.6 12.8 16.0 11.6 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 1.0 0.2 1.8 14.3 23.4 14.8 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 1.5 0.8 2.4 19.6 20.7 14.7 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 0.8 0.7 2.1 18.4 24.3 16.3 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.7 20.7 24.5 15.5 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.7 1.8 14.8 21.3 14.8 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 1.5 0.4 2.5 17.0 21.8 14.3 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 1.4 3.6 1.9 17.3 26.5 15.8 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 1.4 2.0 2.3 21.7 27.9 17.0 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 0.9 0.8 2.2 19.7 26.7 15.9 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 1.6 0.2 2.8 19.6 23.1 16.4 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 0.5 0.1 1.5 13.0 15.4 10.2 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 1.2 1.0 2.0 17.7 25.8 15.8 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 1.4 1.2 2.3 21.1 27.4 18.0 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.9 17.8 18.3 13.2 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 1.2 1.0 2.3 20.3 26.1 17.0 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.3 3.5 21.9 20.7 15.3 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 0.9 0.1 1.5 12.6 19.6 14.1 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 1.6 2.8 2.4 20.8 27.8 17.8 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 0.6 1.3 2.3 18.6 27.4 17.7 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 1.4 0.3 2.4 16.9 20.9 13.5 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 0.7 0.0 1.5 10.7 16.8 10.7 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 1.1 1.8 2.2 22.8 25.6 15.6 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.9 13.7 18.9 12.7 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.7 14.6 20.0 12.1 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 4.4 2.8 3.3 20.2 18.6 14.5 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 0.8 0.2 2.1 18.6 24.2 16.0 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------