***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 0.0 31.3 3.3 96.3 91.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 29.8 31.8 31.3 3.3 95.5 91.1 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 29.6 32.1 31.4 3.3 96.3 92.1 27.1 28.1 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 23.4 25.7 29.4 2.7 93.0 88.7 20.3 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 30.6 33.8 29.6 3.0 96.5 90.3 28.0 28.9 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 29.7 30.8 26.8 2.4 92.0 86.8 26.9 27.9 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 29.4 31.6 31.0 3.2 95.4 90.9 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 19.0 20.5 27.6 2.9 96.7 89.6 16.0 17.3 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 29.8 32.9 30.1 3.2 97.4 91.8 27.5 28.0 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 29.6 32.6 28.5 3.1 97.4 91.3 27.4 28.0 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 30.1 33.6 29.1 3.0 97.7 90.7 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 29.9 32.0 28.8 2.9 97.4 89.8 27.0 28.2 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 31.1 33.3 28.4 2.8 96.1 88.9 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 29.4 32.1 29.5 3.3 94.8 91.9 27.1 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 30.7 32.7 30.3 2.7 94.6 89.7 28.2 29.2 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 31.5 34.2 28.9 2.8 96.8 89.5 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 28.8 31.1 30.8 3.2 95.9 91.1 27.0 27.5 28.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 28.6 31.2 27.6 3.1 96.5 91.1 26.3 27.2 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 29.5 32.0 31.5 3.3 95.3 91.5 27.0 27.9 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 25.6 26.8 25.2 2.7 95.6 88.7 22.2 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 30.2 32.5 30.9 3.2 96.5 91.7 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 29.2 32.3 30.9 3.3 94.8 90.9 27.4 28.1 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 29.1 32.0 31.3 3.4 95.1 92.1 27.1 27.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 29.2 32.1 29.4 3.3 96.3 92.0 26.9 27.9 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 30.1 33.3 29.9 3.2 95.7 91.3 27.2 28.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 30.7 32.1 28.1 2.4 92.0 86.0 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 29.5 32.0 30.4 3.2 95.7 91.5 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 30.8 32.5 29.7 2.6 92.9 88.1 27.9 29.1 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 24.5 26.9 26.6 3.1 97.1 90.9 21.3 23.2 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 29.6 31.8 31.5 3.3 95.8 91.1 27.0 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------