***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 30.3 2.3 80.9 72.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.9 30.2 2.1 79.0 70.5 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.3 30.4 2.3 81.8 72.8 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 24.2 24.7 28.7 1.9 74.9 69.7 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 31.2 31.7 28.6 2.0 76.7 70.6 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.0 26.3 1.9 79.3 70.3 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 29.7 30.4 29.9 2.0 79.1 70.4 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.4 20.5 26.9 2.0 80.4 70.9 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.7 29.0 2.2 80.5 71.7 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.7 32.0 27.6 2.2 80.5 71.4 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 31.0 31.7 28.2 2.1 80.5 71.7 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.8 28.1 2.1 81.0 71.3 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 31.7 32.3 27.6 2.0 78.5 70.6 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 29.7 32.1 28.4 2.3 83.6 72.1 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.5 32.1 29.4 2.1 78.4 72.1 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 32.2 32.9 28.1 2.0 77.2 70.6 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.8 29.6 2.0 76.4 69.5 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 29.4 30.5 26.6 2.1 80.1 70.8 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 29.8 30.5 30.4 2.2 80.6 71.7 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 26.0 27.0 24.3 1.8 77.6 68.9 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.5 29.8 2.2 79.8 71.7 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 29.8 30.3 29.7 2.1 77.0 70.7 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 29.6 31.2 30.2 2.4 83.4 73.1 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 30.1 32.1 28.4 2.3 83.0 72.3 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.5 31.0 28.9 2.2 79.0 72.3 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 31.3 31.4 27.5 1.7 73.4 68.0 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 30.0 31.0 29.4 2.3 80.6 72.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.5 31.8 29.0 1.9 75.6 69.8 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 25.3 26.3 25.5 2.1 78.4 70.4 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.1 31.0 30.4 2.2 80.5 71.5 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------