***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 31.3 3.1 87.9 77.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 31.3 32.3 31.1 2.8 87.2 75.0 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 31.6 32.6 31.4 3.0 87.7 76.7 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 24.5 25.7 29.8 2.7 85.4 76.8 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 32.5 33.8 29.7 2.9 86.2 76.8 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.7 27.4 2.7 84.0 77.1 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 30.9 32.1 30.9 2.8 87.5 75.4 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 19.9 20.7 28.0 2.9 85.7 76.6 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 31.6 33.0 30.1 3.1 87.2 77.9 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 31.0 33.2 28.7 3.0 87.0 77.2 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 32.2 33.2 29.3 3.0 86.1 77.8 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 31.1 32.5 29.2 3.0 85.6 77.4 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 32.5 33.8 28.8 3.0 85.1 77.2 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 30.9 32.4 29.3 2.8 87.9 75.1 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 31.9 34.1 30.5 2.8 87.4 79.0 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 33.3 34.2 29.2 2.9 85.7 77.3 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 30.6 31.9 30.6 2.7 87.2 74.8 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 29.8 31.6 27.7 2.9 86.5 75.7 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 30.8 32.3 31.3 2.9 87.6 75.2 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 26.6 27.9 25.4 2.6 83.8 74.2 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 31.4 32.8 30.9 3.0 87.8 77.5 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.2 30.6 2.7 87.1 74.7 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 31.0 32.1 31.1 3.0 88.9 75.5 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 30.4 32.6 29.4 3.0 87.8 76.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 31.6 33.3 30.0 3.0 87.5 78.6 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 31.7 32.8 28.5 2.5 81.2 74.8 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 31.2 32.5 30.4 3.0 88.1 78.1 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 31.7 33.6 30.0 2.7 85.7 77.0 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 25.8 27.6 26.6 2.8 86.2 75.0 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 31.0 32.6 31.3 2.9 87.3 75.6 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------