***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 34.5 6.1 100.0 99.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 30.7 34.2 34.9 6.3 100.0 99.8 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 31.2 34.7 34.8 6.2 100.0 99.8 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 24.1 27.8 31.8 5.1 99.9 98.0 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 32.4 35.0 32.8 5.6 100.0 98.9 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 29.8 32.6 28.4 3.6 93.1 92.1 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 30.5 34.1 34.5 6.1 100.0 99.9 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 19.1 22.7 30.3 5.2 99.5 96.9 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 31.4 34.5 33.7 6.0 100.0 99.4 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.9 31.8 5.9 99.9 98.7 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 31.8 34.6 32.1 5.3 99.9 97.9 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 30.8 32.4 31.3 5.0 99.4 96.8 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 31.5 34.0 31.1 4.8 99.2 96.4 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 30.4 34.4 33.0 6.1 100.0 99.4 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 31.8 33.9 33.2 4.7 98.2 97.2 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 32.6 35.1 31.6 4.9 99.4 97.0 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 30.5 33.9 34.5 6.5 100.0 99.8 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 30.0 32.7 30.8 5.9 99.9 98.6 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 30.3 34.3 35.0 6.4 100.0 99.8 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 25.6 28.8 28.3 5.3 99.3 97.0 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 30.9 34.9 34.5 6.0 100.0 99.6 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 30.8 34.7 34.6 6.5 100.0 99.8 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 30.7 33.7 34.8 6.4 100.0 99.8 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 30.8 34.3 32.8 6.0 100.0 99.3 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 31.6 34.6 33.1 5.8 100.0 99.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.1 34.2 30.4 4.3 97.2 94.3 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 30.8 33.7 33.7 5.9 100.0 99.8 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 31.6 33.9 32.1 4.5 97.8 96.5 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 25.1 28.4 29.9 5.9 99.9 98.4 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 30.8 34.2 34.9 6.2 100.0 99.9 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------