***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 0.0 19.8 2.3 98.5 92.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 16.1 17.0 19.6 2.1 96.3 90.8 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 18.4 20.1 19.7 2.3 98.6 94.1 16.6 17.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 13.8 15.9 17.4 1.6 95.3 89.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 14.3 15.8 17.2 1.7 97.2 91.1 13.2 13.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 13.3 14.2 15.1 1.4 95.1 87.1 12.6 12.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 16.0 17.3 19.6 2.1 96.1 90.4 14.8 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 9.3 10.9 15.4 1.7 97.7 90.4 7.5 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 15.8 16.9 17.8 1.9 98.7 93.2 14.5 14.8 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 15.7 16.4 16.0 1.8 97.7 91.7 14.5 14.6 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.2 16.3 16.8 1.7 97.5 91.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 13.2 14.3 16.2 1.7 98.2 91.1 12.0 12.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.3 15.6 15.3 1.3 94.5 86.0 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 16.4 17.0 17.6 1.9 97.3 91.2 15.0 15.3 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 17.1 17.9 18.5 1.8 96.5 90.7 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 16.0 17.4 16.2 1.5 95.9 88.5 14.8 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 16.4 17.4 18.9 1.9 96.0 89.2 15.1 15.5 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 14.0 14.7 15.0 1.6 96.3 88.8 12.4 13.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 16.0 16.9 19.6 2.2 97.2 92.3 14.6 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 9.9 10.7 13.3 1.4 95.4 85.8 9.0 9.1 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 15.2 16.4 19.0 2.1 98.7 93.6 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 15.4 16.0 19.0 2.0 96.3 90.9 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 15.2 16.1 19.4 2.2 97.9 93.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 15.9 17.0 17.4 1.9 97.7 92.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 15.5 16.8 18.2 2.1 97.6 92.3 14.4 15.0 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 14.6 15.1 15.2 1.1 88.8 82.4 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 15.7 17.5 18.9 2.1 97.6 91.6 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 14.4 15.6 17.7 1.6 94.3 88.5 13.2 13.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 13.3 14.8 14.4 1.6 96.1 88.5 12.0 12.3 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 16.3 17.6 19.8 2.2 97.0 91.6 14.8 15.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------