***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 1.3 77.0 69.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.2 17.6 1.1 73.6 67.2 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.4 18.1 17.7 1.4 78.9 71.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.3 12.6 15.7 1.0 70.6 66.3 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.1 15.4 1.1 74.0 68.1 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.8 13.7 1.0 71.1 67.6 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.2 17.6 1.0 72.7 66.1 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.4 13.7 1.1 76.8 68.8 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.8 15.9 1.3 80.9 71.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.6 15.1 14.2 1.2 78.7 70.1 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 14.4 14.8 15.1 1.2 78.9 71.1 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.7 12.9 14.6 1.2 76.4 69.8 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.7 13.9 1.0 69.5 67.5 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.1 15.8 1.3 80.5 72.2 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 16.0 16.3 16.7 1.3 77.7 71.1 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.0 14.7 1.1 73.2 69.0 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.6 16.9 0.9 69.1 65.4 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.1 13.4 13.4 1.1 76.9 69.6 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.9 17.6 1.2 77.4 69.4 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.5 11.8 0.9 71.6 65.2 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.4 16.9 1.3 79.9 70.3 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.6 16.9 1.0 74.1 67.4 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 14.6 15.2 17.4 1.4 82.5 72.9 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.5 15.6 1.3 80.9 72.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.1 16.2 1.2 76.6 68.6 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.7 14.0 0.8 66.1 64.2 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.5 16.9 1.2 76.2 68.3 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.8 16.1 1.0 72.8 68.1 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.5 12.9 1.1 73.8 69.0 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.5 16.1 17.8 1.2 75.4 68.3 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------