***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 19.2 1.9 86.2 74.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.1 17.1 19.0 1.6 80.4 71.2 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 18.5 19.5 19.1 1.9 85.6 75.2 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.6 15.1 16.8 1.3 78.8 71.2 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 14.1 14.4 16.6 1.4 81.3 72.8 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.7 14.7 1.2 74.6 70.9 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 16.7 17.6 19.0 1.6 78.7 70.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.6 10.2 14.8 1.4 81.1 72.3 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.6 17.2 1.7 87.7 75.5 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 15.2 16.1 15.4 1.5 83.4 73.3 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.3 16.2 1.5 81.6 74.3 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.2 13.5 15.7 1.5 81.5 74.5 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.4 14.9 1.3 79.2 73.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.9 16.9 1.5 82.9 72.2 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.7 17.1 17.9 1.6 80.8 74.7 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.0 15.7 1.3 79.3 73.2 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.9 18.2 1.4 75.6 68.2 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 13.9 14.5 14.5 1.3 81.3 71.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.3 17.4 19.0 1.7 83.1 72.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.7 12.8 1.1 76.1 67.4 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.3 16.2 18.3 1.8 88.6 75.3 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 15.6 16.2 18.2 1.4 78.3 69.4 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 15.6 16.2 18.7 1.8 84.7 74.5 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.6 16.8 1.6 84.2 73.9 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 15.9 16.7 17.6 1.8 87.0 74.8 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.5 14.9 1.0 73.9 69.3 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 16.5 17.3 18.3 1.8 85.8 73.9 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 17.2 1.3 77.8 71.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.5 14.0 13.9 1.3 79.9 70.7 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.7 17.7 19.2 1.7 82.1 72.7 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------