***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 20.3 2.5 95.1 81.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 16.3 17.4 20.0 2.1 93.5 76.7 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 19.0 20.5 20.1 2.4 95.5 81.2 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 15.2 16.1 17.9 1.9 88.1 78.9 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 15.1 15.6 17.7 1.9 89.7 79.5 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 14.0 14.6 15.6 1.5 84.0 76.3 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.7 20.0 2.1 92.4 77.0 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 10.0 11.5 15.8 1.8 88.6 77.7 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 16.2 18.1 18.3 2.2 95.0 81.8 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 16.2 16.9 16.4 1.9 91.3 79.4 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 15.6 16.2 17.2 1.9 90.0 80.5 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 13.7 14.6 16.7 1.9 89.6 79.9 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 15.0 15.7 15.9 1.7 88.0 78.6 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.8 17.9 1.9 92.7 76.6 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 17.3 18.0 19.0 2.2 89.2 82.4 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 16.6 17.5 16.8 1.8 88.0 79.3 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 16.9 17.9 19.2 1.9 91.3 73.6 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.3 15.5 1.7 91.3 77.2 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 16.4 17.5 20.0 2.2 94.1 77.9 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.7 13.7 1.4 82.1 72.6 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 15.9 17.9 19.4 2.4 94.3 82.0 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 15.8 16.9 19.2 1.9 91.3 74.1 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 15.7 16.9 19.8 2.3 95.5 79.6 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 16.2 18.2 17.8 2.0 94.8 79.5 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.9 18.7 2.5 95.3 82.9 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.0 15.2 16.0 1.5 81.0 75.0 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 16.8 18.8 19.4 2.5 95.5 81.9 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 14.9 15.6 18.3 1.8 86.6 79.1 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 14.1 15.2 14.8 1.5 88.8 74.9 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 17.0 18.0 20.2 2.3 94.1 78.6 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------