***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 47.4 65.1 46.9 130.4 75.2 62.5 39.2 43.0 58.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 65.8 72.2 46.6 116.7 71.5 60.2 24.7 41.4 67.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 66.0 73.2 51.8 142.1 79.1 67.1 32.0 46.9 68.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 70.7 69.8 50.5 142.0 72.0 67.7 33.9 45.5 58.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 45.0 50.3 53.5 143.2 76.9 68.0 26.2 32.5 44.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 52.8 57.6 59.0 146.5 76.1 68.4 32.5 40.3 46.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 44.1 48.2 43.0 105.7 63.2 56.3 26.7 36.4 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 93.9 89.5 62.6 139.4 72.5 68.3 41.1 63.6 82.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 63.7 90.9 62.5 158.5 83.3 73.7 29.3 43.3 56.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 71.6 69.6 69.0 145.6 75.1 70.0 44.4 50.9 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 53.2 58.7 48.7 144.7 77.0 68.7 31.7 42.6 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 54.8 54.7 46.0 139.2 73.5 67.3 28.2 35.9 46.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 53.1 60.2 49.6 149.2 75.9 70.6 19.4 32.5 46.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 73.0 79.9 67.9 139.4 77.6 66.1 36.0 58.3 66.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 38.9 36.9 36.2 110.6 63.5 58.8 17.7 33.3 40.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 53.6 61.6 49.1 155.4 76.5 70.8 21.1 38.9 47.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 28.6 54.1 45.7 109.6 70.1 57.1 30.2 37.9 51.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 60.3 58.2 78.6 139.5 73.8 68.0 40.5 45.2 51.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 68.5 78.1 49.6 130.0 77.2 63.8 31.6 44.4 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 63.3 79.7 72.6 124.8 68.9 63.2 38.2 58.6 78.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 64.8 86.8 52.1 146.2 80.6 69.2 27.0 45.2 59.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 59.7 64.4 49.2 120.9 75.4 59.1 34.4 41.1 55.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 60.5 78.1 53.1 141.9 80.5 66.9 29.5 42.3 50.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 81.3 91.3 69.6 145.9 78.9 69.5 39.4 56.1 73.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 45.1 54.9 49.5 125.0 71.6 61.6 31.4 40.8 51.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 48.1 49.3 36.8 136.7 73.7 65.0 26.0 31.7 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 51.3 68.4 50.8 125.7 71.8 61.2 34.6 44.5 63.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 44.0 38.9 46.4 138.4 70.7 66.9 20.7 27.3 37.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 89.7 102.8 78.0 134.4 72.5 66.4 47.0 61.9 87.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 49.2 52.0 45.7 118.8 70.6 60.1 24.1 31.4 49.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------