***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.0 5.8 101.4 71.0 53.4 6.1 8.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.8 5.7 79.0 63.0 49.4 3.8 4.9 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.3 19.8 5.3 80.1 64.4 50.0 3.8 14.3 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.3 20.4 7.0 95.0 72.2 53.2 5.7 8.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.4 19.5 6.8 86.1 68.4 51.3 3.7 8.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.1 17.1 9.4 86.8 66.5 51.2 1.9 9.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.5 5.6 79.9 61.6 46.9 2.5 5.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.8 19.5 6.8 61.7 55.8 45.3 7.2 16.9 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.1 6.5 78.1 64.4 51.3 6.5 8.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.6 13.2 7.5 68.0 57.6 48.0 8.8 12.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.3 14.7 6.3 83.4 66.3 49.8 5.5 10.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.7 12.6 5.2 67.0 62.2 46.4 2.9 7.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.4 11.6 6.5 77.4 64.6 49.3 1.6 5.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.4 14.9 7.2 66.3 57.3 47.0 8.3 14.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.1 6.4 5.2 80.9 71.8 49.0 0.5 2.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 17.2 7.1 94.2 69.0 51.0 0.8 6.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.5 14.5 6.2 83.6 63.5 49.5 4.0 8.0 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.1 9.1 67.4 54.6 46.8 8.1 11.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.8 5.3 75.0 63.8 49.6 5.9 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.4 15.6 9.3 63.6 52.4 45.0 12.3 14.8 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 20.8 5.6 85.9 68.0 51.7 4.1 6.6 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.5 5.8 73.5 64.2 49.9 4.1 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.0 16.0 4.9 66.8 62.5 47.9 5.8 8.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.6 7.6 72.6 60.7 49.3 5.2 8.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.6 18.9 6.4 88.6 67.9 49.7 3.7 11.1 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.9 3.6 53.8 58.5 44.2 0.8 7.3 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.1 21.6 6.6 94.1 68.1 50.5 3.2 8.8 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.2 16.4 6.8 92.6 73.6 51.7 0.8 5.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.4 20.9 9.4 65.5 53.3 45.9 9.6 19.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.4 5.4 80.2 63.3 49.3 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------