***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.8 8.4 8.1 98.1 70.6 54.2 0.0 1.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.5 7.8 80.0 58.9 47.9 1.0 5.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.3 8.9 107.4 71.2 50.3 2.4 8.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.7 17.5 7.4 81.3 74.0 54.1 0.2 4.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 3.9 7.1 8.0 92.1 74.2 52.9 0.5 2.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 3.2 8.7 11.1 101.1 73.2 52.2 0.1 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.2 8.9 7.3 74.4 57.7 44.9 0.3 4.7 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 20.5 9.6 99.6 73.0 56.0 1.8 7.3 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.3 9.3 9.8 110.0 74.9 55.9 0.2 2.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 12.1 11.1 108.3 71.8 56.2 0.1 4.3 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.7 6.1 7.2 97.7 74.0 54.4 0.3 2.8 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 3.6 8.8 6.7 91.6 75.8 55.5 0.0 1.5 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 0.2 9.4 7.5 90.3 73.5 52.3 0.0 0.4 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.1 10.6 99.9 61.8 49.6 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.4 4.5 5.3 61.0 69.7 46.9 0.0 0.8 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.2 5.3 6.9 90.1 72.9 52.4 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.7 6.9 70.6 59.0 46.2 0.7 4.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 14.7 14.2 112.2 67.6 56.6 1.0 4.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.9 7.9 87.8 60.9 49.1 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.9 11.7 12.6 94.8 66.1 54.5 0.3 3.3 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.1 9.7 8.0 100.8 73.2 52.4 1.0 2.4 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.5 6.8 74.7 59.4 45.9 0.8 7.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.2 8.1 96.1 62.6 49.3 2.6 5.9 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.6 15.9 12.7 117.4 68.7 55.3 1.1 4.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.9 7.3 9.2 94.5 71.8 53.5 0.4 2.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 0.4 4.3 4.6 71.7 66.5 43.3 0.0 1.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.7 9.7 100.7 70.0 54.8 2.4 6.2 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 0.6 9.9 6.4 73.1 72.1 50.9 0.0 1.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 18.9 14.3 110.9 66.9 56.8 0.7 9.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.5 10.2 8.1 88.3 62.4 46.9 0.9 5.3 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------