***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.4 10.4 8.5 104.0 70.9 50.9 0.4 3.0 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.3 7.6 8.0 88.9 63.9 46.9 0.8 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.9 12.5 8.6 102.5 69.7 50.8 1.0 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 12.9 8.8 116.8 73.9 56.0 0.3 1.3 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 0.7 8.9 9.6 118.0 76.8 54.7 0.6 1.7 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 13.7 12.1 135.5 76.1 60.2 0.2 2.1 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.0 6.6 6.8 69.6 58.0 43.5 0.5 2.4 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.1 15.2 11.3 102.6 69.4 52.9 3.7 7.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.3 14.5 12.1 132.4 78.4 59.9 1.1 5.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.9 13.0 110.3 72.6 54.2 1.1 9.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.0 8.1 8.3 111.3 73.5 55.0 0.3 3.2 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.5 11.2 7.6 102.6 72.6 55.0 0.0 2.0 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 5.5 7.5 9.3 129.2 77.7 59.5 0.4 1.5 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.3 14.3 11.2 97.1 68.7 49.5 5.8 9.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.9 7.4 5.6 82.8 69.1 47.7 0.3 2.3 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 5.4 6.8 8.8 130.8 75.9 60.8 0.2 0.9 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.8 7.6 76.8 57.7 43.4 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.0 16.0 109.9 72.6 57.5 1.6 5.8 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.6 10.5 8.6 102.9 68.7 50.0 1.7 3.4 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 9.2 15.6 105.4 68.3 57.2 3.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.4 17.9 9.6 127.8 77.3 57.0 0.1 5.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.9 8.8 98.1 61.5 45.5 1.4 2.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.0 12.9 8.9 106.4 68.9 51.7 1.8 4.3 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 20.1 13.3 113.3 73.3 56.9 1.8 10.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.7 11.9 9.7 111.5 71.1 50.1 1.1 6.1 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 1.2 11.9 5.6 111.3 76.9 50.1 0.4 3.5 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.9 8.8 10.0 106.9 69.4 49.8 1.1 3.9 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.8 6.2 7.2 102.8 71.1 53.7 0.7 3.1 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.7 16.1 108.9 70.1 57.5 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.2 7.5 7.7 86.6 64.1 46.0 1.4 2.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------