***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 18.4 24.7 24.6 177.0 83.0 73.5 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 18.1 29.0 25.2 179.2 84.6 73.1 2.6 5.4 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 20.7 27.8 29.0 220.9 87.9 78.2 2.6 5.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 33.1 46.8 27.2 238.2 88.3 80.5 6.2 9.6 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 15.3 21.1 29.2 230.7 88.2 80.3 2.3 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 24.6 58.5 26.5 274.8 91.5 83.3 3.3 8.6 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 14.6 20.8 23.3 166.0 80.2 70.1 2.3 5.3 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 22.7 35.1 34.9 260.2 90.3 83.4 7.7 14.7 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 18.9 36.1 34.2 261.2 90.8 84.1 4.7 9.3 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 25.4 42.7 37.4 260.0 90.9 83.2 5.8 11.6 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 24.8 31.2 26.9 242.3 89.4 82.2 3.4 12.8 21.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 19.8 41.8 26.5 254.1 89.2 82.3 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 18.0 48.9 26.3 279.5 93.6 84.3 0.9 4.8 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.3 49.5 38.9 247.0 90.9 79.5 4.8 9.5 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 22.3 39.3 20.1 187.5 83.9 71.4 4.0 8.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 17.1 32.4 26.3 273.7 92.3 83.4 2.2 7.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 20.2 29.0 25.1 170.9 82.1 70.5 4.0 8.5 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 27.6 35.2 39.3 249.9 89.6 82.8 4.9 8.6 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 20.1 37.8 27.8 202.0 86.8 75.8 2.1 6.3 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 19.4 27.7 35.0 229.0 88.5 81.5 5.1 10.8 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 17.8 27.3 28.8 215.7 84.5 78.4 2.6 9.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 17.0 24.5 27.9 188.4 82.8 72.4 3.2 6.8 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 14.3 26.6 31.3 233.7 87.9 78.6 2.3 4.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 31.0 50.4 36.0 245.7 88.3 81.1 7.5 13.8 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 23.1 28.8 24.2 172.4 79.1 70.8 1.7 11.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 20.4 32.0 23.0 261.9 91.2 82.7 1.0 5.8 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.4 24.2 24.6 169.5 80.6 71.6 4.8 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 22.6 46.2 26.0 250.9 88.7 80.9 3.0 5.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 27.1 42.1 38.2 238.3 90.1 81.9 7.8 16.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.4 17.1 24.6 179.1 84.7 73.2 2.1 5.4 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------