***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 27.2 27.1 27.6 -1.1 26.5 29.9 28.1 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.7 -1.0 30.1 33.0 27.6 28.2 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 27.2 26.8 27.6 -1.2 21.3 28.6 27.3 28.6 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 20.1 19.6 25.7 -1.7 14.2 20.3 20.6 21.6 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 27.6 27.0 25.8 -1.5 15.7 23.0 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 26.0 25.9 24.0 -1.3 23.0 26.2 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.2 27.5 27.7 -0.8 36.7 36.1 27.3 28.0 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 15.6 15.0 24.1 -1.4 19.1 24.9 16.2 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 27.1 26.7 26.2 -1.4 18.7 25.9 27.6 28.4 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 26.8 26.3 24.8 -1.4 19.8 26.0 27.5 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 27.2 26.7 25.4 -1.5 18.0 24.2 27.7 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 26.4 25.8 25.1 -1.6 16.5 22.9 27.2 28.2 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 27.2 26.6 24.8 -1.7 17.6 21.5 28.2 29.2 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.1 25.9 -1.0 28.6 32.2 27.2 28.3 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 27.7 27.6 26.5 -1.7 17.8 20.1 28.4 29.2 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 27.8 27.2 25.3 -1.6 18.2 22.2 28.7 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.4 27.6 -0.6 41.2 39.8 27.1 27.6 28.2 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 26.0 26.0 24.0 -1.2 25.5 28.8 26.3 27.4 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 26.7 26.8 27.7 -1.1 26.6 31.7 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 21.9 21.4 22.1 -1.2 23.8 27.5 22.4 23.8 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 27.2 26.8 27.0 -1.4 18.6 25.5 27.3 28.5 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 27.3 27.5 27.5 -0.7 36.6 37.6 27.5 28.1 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 26.9 26.8 27.4 -1.0 25.1 31.5 27.2 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 26.8 26.3 25.8 -1.1 24.4 30.2 26.9 28.1 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 27.5 27.1 26.2 -1.2 20.7 27.3 27.4 28.8 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 26.8 26.1 24.7 -1.9 12.2 17.1 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 27.1 26.8 27.0 -1.0 28.3 31.6 27.2 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 27.5 27.1 26.0 -1.8 14.7 19.1 28.2 29.3 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 21.6 21.3 23.2 -1.1 26.3 30.2 21.6 23.3 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 27.0 27.0 27.8 -1.1 27.5 31.1 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------