***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 24.7 26.3 26.4 -1.0 37.9 39.7 25.9 26.7 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.3 26.8 26.7 -0.7 47.3 43.5 25.5 26.9 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 24.9 26.2 26.6 -0.9 42.0 41.1 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 18.1 18.8 24.7 -1.5 29.8 32.8 19.3 20.1 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 25.5 26.5 24.7 -1.3 33.9 36.5 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 24.8 26.3 23.1 -0.9 39.4 39.2 25.1 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.1 26.6 -0.7 46.2 43.9 25.0 26.5 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 14.2 16.0 23.3 -1.0 42.1 40.5 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 25.1 26.0 25.0 -1.1 37.7 38.7 25.5 27.0 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 25.1 26.3 23.8 -1.0 41.5 40.3 25.8 27.4 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 24.9 26.6 24.4 -1.1 37.1 38.2 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.8 26.4 24.3 -1.1 38.4 39.0 25.0 27.3 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 25.7 25.6 23.9 -1.3 31.3 36.6 26.2 28.2 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.7 25.0 -0.5 49.5 45.3 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 25.7 26.2 25.1 -1.7 28.7 30.7 26.4 27.7 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 26.2 27.6 24.3 -1.3 33.4 36.6 27.4 28.8 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.1 26.5 -0.5 50.2 46.6 24.3 26.1 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.1 23.2 -0.8 48.2 43.4 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.6 26.5 26.8 -0.7 48.3 43.8 25.5 26.5 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 23.1 22.3 21.3 -0.8 46.2 42.7 20.9 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 24.9 25.9 25.8 -1.1 35.4 38.1 25.6 27.0 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.3 26.5 -0.5 49.1 46.6 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.6 26.6 -0.6 50.0 44.5 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.4 24.8 -0.7 47.0 43.6 25.4 26.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 25.1 26.0 24.9 -1.2 34.0 37.3 26.0 26.8 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 25.5 26.0 23.9 -1.4 31.5 34.4 26.3 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 24.6 26.4 25.7 -0.9 39.1 40.4 25.4 26.7 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 25.9 25.7 24.9 -1.6 29.1 31.9 26.0 27.9 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.9 22.3 -0.7 49.1 44.6 20.5 21.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 24.5 26.3 26.8 -0.8 44.7 42.2 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------